2012 NBA Draft Mock #4: Pre-Lottery Edition
One of the most under-appreciated days of the NBA Draft process was yesterday, when the ties in the standings were broken. The improved chances at the picks are, of course, tiny at best, but the tiebreakers make a significant difference if teams don’t jump into the top 3.
The biggest news is the celebration in Golden State, where the Warriors won their coin flip with the Raptors and have a 72.6% chance of being 7 or higher – if they end up with pick #8, they ship it to Utah and all of their tanking in the past month (when they lost 17 of their last 20 games) is for not.
As for the lotto itself – let’s take a quick look at our updated teams. Included with each team is the chances the teams have at the top pick, as well as a top three selection.
1. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): PF/C Anthony Davis, Kentucky
Chances: 25-percent chance at No. 1, 64.3 percent at top three
There is no question to the top pick in this draft. Davis would be number one in nearly any draft… he’d have been #1 in 2011 (Kyrie Irving went #1), in 2010 (John Wall went #1), 2009 (Blake Griffin went #1) and maybe even 2008 (Derrick Rose went #1).
Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s mock draft…
2. Washington Wizards (20-46): SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
Chances: 19.9-percent chance at No. 1, 55.8-percent chance at top three
Mocks have Andre Drummond going as high as number 2. Hopefully Washington learned their lesion last time and won’t take Kwame Brown version 2. Instead, they take the hard working, versatile wing man and finally give John Wall a legitimately awesome teammate.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45): SG Bradley Beal, Florida
Chances: 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.
Beal isn’t a sure a product as Thomas Robinson, but the Cavs don’t need another PF when they used the 4th overall pick last season on Tristian Thompson. Beal would work wonders with Kyrie Irving and make the Cavs a very dangerous offensive team in the future.
4. New Orleans Hornets (21-45): PF Thomas Robinson, Kansas
Chances: 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.
The Hornets happily take the third most talented player in the draft. Robinson came oh-so-close to carrying Kansas to a national championship, and he’d give New Orleans an excellent piece to not only build the team around, but a piece to build the entire franchise around.
5. Sacramento Kings (22-44): SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina
Chances: 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.
Barnes is a very solid shooter, but not much else. He has the potential to develop, but at this point he is a one-trick pony. Sacramento would love to get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist instead, but don’t expect the Kings to take Andre Drummond if they could fit their wing need instead.
6. Portland Trailblazers (From New Jersey Nets) (22-44): C Andre Drummond, UConn (If Pick is Top 3, Selection is Owned by New Jersey/Brooklyn)
Chances: 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.
I may not like Drummond because of his work ethic, but he’s still in most scouts books a top three pick. Portland needs some size and doesn’t have a permanent fit in at center, so they take Drummond here as the defender/rebounder next to LaMarcus Aldridge.
7. Golden State Warriors (23-43): PF/C Jared Sullinger, Ohio State (If Pick is 8 or lower, Selection is owned by Utah)
Chances: 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.
Golden State needs size and skill in the paint. They’d prefer that their pick be a good shotblocker, but they go with the best rebounder instead. Sullinger is a very good lost post scorer and rebounder, but he doesn’t have the potential that many big men in this draft have.
8. Toronto Raptors (23-43): PF Perry Jones, Baylor
Chances: 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.
I expect when Perry Jones shows off his skills in workouts he rockets up the draft boards again as he convinces scouts and experts that his inconsistency doesn’t outweigh his talent. Toronto happily takes him and cross its fingers that he doesn’t choke all that often.
9. Detroit Pistons (25-41): PF John Henson, North Carolina
Chances: 1.7-percent chance at No. 1, 6.1-percent chance at top three.
Henson has the rebounding and shot blocking skills to be perfect in Detroit alongside Greg Monroe. He really REALLY needs to bulk up and improve his scoring game, but he’s still only 21 and remains one of the more underrated players in the draft.
10. New Orleans Hornets (From Minnesota Timberwolves) (26-40): PG Damian Lillard, Weber State
Chances: 1.1-percent chance at No. 1, 4-percent chance at top three.
After taking Robinson at #4, the Hornets take the classes best PG option. Weber is a great scorer and an improving passer, but needs to prove he can be a floor general. Still, talent wise, New Orleans gets two excellent pieces.
11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38): PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
Chances: 0.8-percent chance at No. 1, 2.9-percent chance at top three.
Raymond Felton is hitting FA this summer and Portland won’t much miss him anyways. Marshall is a far better floor general than Felton, or many NBA starting PGs for that matter, but needs to get some offensive skills of his own before he’ll become anything special.
12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina
Chances: 0.7-percent chance at No. 1, 2.5-percent chance at top three.
Milwaukee needs size, and Zeller brings it, along with speed and high basketball IQ. His weaknesses (shotblocking, athleticism) are negated alongside current Bucks big Epke Udoh.
13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): SG Jeremy Lamb, UConn
Chances: 0.6-percent chance at No. 1, 2.2-percent chance at top three.
The Suns need talent in any form, and happily take the best player left. Lamb has all the scoring gifts you want in a wing, but needs some leadership. He’s not a great defender, but his shooting talents make him hard to pass up.
14. Houston Rockets (34-32): C Meyers Leonard, Illinois
Chances: 0.5-percent chance at No. 1, 1.8-percent chance at top three.
Houston could take Terrence Jones here, but they have a more pressing need in the paint and Leonard has the potential to be a steal if he works out. His defense and rebounding are both excellent, but his motor is a bit inconsistent.
About the Author
Bryant West, Columnist Graduate from Saint Mary's College of California, former Editor-in-Chief of the Saint Mary's Collegian Newspaper and beat writer for the Saint Mary's men's basketball team. Self-diagnosed spelling failure. Long time basketball follower, huge Sacramento Kings fanatic. Fan of the San Francisco Giants, the San Francisco 49ers and the Saint Mary's Gaels. This world is made - of LOVE and PEACE! Check out my NBA Draft Big Board, where I break down the top of the 2012 draft class! - And follow me on twitter at @BSWest5.
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