2012 NBA Draft Prospect Stock Watch: Quincy Miller
Name: Quincy Miller
Hometown: North Chicago, IL
Physicals: 6′ 9″, 210 lbs, 19 years old
College: Baylor
NBA Position: Small Forward
Current Stats: 10.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, .7 SPG, .6 BPG, 1.8 TPG, 44.7% FG, 81.6% FT, 34.8% 3P
Quincy Miller pulled a switch last week when we decided that he would, in fact, join the 2012 NBA Draft. While we’ll never know exactly what went through his head when he made his final decision, I believe it was a mistake to keep his name in the draft.
The class of 2012 is already stock full of midrange-late teens type talent, and unless Miller wows in the workouts, he’s not going to soar much higher. In fact, he’s actually been falling as the year went on. At the beginning of the NCAA season, he was expected to go in the lottery. Now, he’s probably around 18-20. Some mocks even have him going in the very late first round.
Rather, he could have returned to Baylor , and, out of the shadow of Perry Jones, he could have proven once and for all if he was a true #1 option in college. He’d probably have found more favorable draft odds next year. Of course, he could have gone back, floundered as the top option and found himself no better off next year.
Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…
As a player, Miller has most of the tools you look for in a small forward. He’s athletic and has excellent size and length for his position. He’s a smart, cerebral type player who both has the body to excel and the mind to use it. He’s very fluid, and the only downside to him physically right now is he’s still way too wiry – he needs to bulk up in strength.
His versatility as a scorer is his most promising NBA feature. He’s got a strong penetrating game, surprisingly solid post moves for a small forward, and solidly consistent range from the outside. And, of course, he’s so athletic that he can rise up above most college players. That might change a bit in the NBA, but he’ll still be above average in terms of hops, so as long as he continues to develop his range and driving abilities there isn’t any reason to think he can’t be a starter level scorer.
It’s tough to get an entire read on Miller defensively. Check out this clip from Walker Beeken of Draft Express –
Defensively, it’s tough to get a great gauge on Miller as a man-to-man defender, since Baylor uses a zone as their primary defense. It appears that he’ll have quite a bit of work to do, however, as his defensive fundamentals seem to be lacking, as he struggles to get in a low stance on the perimeter and has below average lateral quickness for his position.
Additionally, his focus and energy level are inconsistent, as he doesn’t seem to bring the same intensity level from possession to possession, which was clearly an issue for him already in high school. He’ll need to improve his toughness, particularly in terms of fighting his way through screens, something that getting stronger will likely help with.
Another concern for Miller is his injury history. He tore his ACL in his senior year of high school, and while he recovered in a year and showed no sign of loss of athleticism last year at Baylor, it’s certainly a concern, especially after the ACL injuries in the 2012 Playoffs.
One interesting note is ESPN’s Chad Ford’s assessment of Miller’s top skills. He lists basketball IQ and size as two of his top traits (both which make sense), but he also puts rebounding as his third top trait. This isn’t really supported by any evidence. In his positives about Miller, he also says he is an “excellent rebounder/shot-blocker”. Sorry Chad, did you write this before the season and forget to update it?
Perhaps if he was comparing Miller’s rebounding/blocking to his teammate Perry Jones (who is now famously afraid of contact and despite his 6’11’’ frame is a poor rebounder) it would make sense. But miller certainly wasn’t an “excellent” rebounder or shotblocker this season. He averaged just 4.9 rebounds and .7 blocks, which don’t even rank in the top 30 for his POSITION. To his credit, Baylor as a team averaged 36.4 rebounds a contest, 29th in the league, so even if he and Jones weren’t massively impressive rebounders for their size, at least the team got it done.
This isn’t to say that Miller was a failure in his freshman year or anything. Just don’t expect him to come into the NBA and demolish right off the bat.
Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 18th Overall
NBADraft.net: 30th Overall
ESPN.com: 19th Overall
Draft Watch: NBADraft.net continues with their head scratching mocks, as there is no way Miller falls to 30. But as he is, he’s in that jumble of not-quite-lottery talent who will go from 15-20 and are so very hard to predict.
Dallas needs young wings badly, having relied on Shawn Marrion and Vince Carter all season. Those are two excellent players for Miller to learn from, both of whom were once very much like the young Baylor product. If Marrion could get Miller excited about defense and Vince could help offensively, I think this would be an excellent situation for Miller to land himself in.
Orlando has scorer wings, but aside from the remaining fragments once known as Jason Richardson, they don’t have anyone athletic. Enter Miller, who gives the Magic (sans Dwight Howard, when they inevitably swap him before next season) with another decent piece in a team lacking star power.
At the very lowest, Boston (who have picks at 21 and 22) could take Miller to bolster their big wing depth. With defensive veterans surrounding him and Paul Pierce to mentor him, Miller makes a lot of sense for Boston if he falls so far… as long as Boston still finds a way to get Austin Rivers. It needs to happen.
Conclusion: A prototype small forward whose only weakness is a lack of defensive intensity, Miller is another midrange first round talent who, if he lands in the right situation and works at his defense, has lottery type talent.
About the Author
Bryant West, Columnist Graduate from Saint Mary's College of California, former Editor-in-Chief of the Saint Mary's Collegian Newspaper and beat writer for the Saint Mary's men's basketball team. Self-diagnosed spelling failure. Long time basketball follower, huge Sacramento Kings fanatic. Fan of the San Francisco Giants, the San Francisco 49ers and the Saint Mary's Gaels. This world is made - of LOVE and PEACE! Check out my NBA Draft Big Board, where I break down the top of the 2012 draft class! - And follow me on twitter at @BSWest5.
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