2012 NBA Draft Mock #5: Final Pre-Lottery Edition
On Wednesday night comes one of the most important and under-heralded NBA events of the season – the lottery, where mere ping-pong balls will decide the fate of top pick Anthony Davis and the face of at least one franchise for the foreseeable future.
With Davis locked into the top spot, expect ESPN to have a camera in his house (ala John Wall 2010) to capture his face when he finds out where he’s going to be drafted. Will he grimace if Charlotte gets the top pick (He probably should)?
As for the rest of the picks – let’s take a look at the final mock before tonight’s lottery.
1. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): PF/C Anthony Davis, Kentucky
Chances: 25-percent chance at No. 1, 64.3 percent at top three
Can you imagine poor Charlotte if they miss Davis? What if they fall to #4 and take, say, Andre Drummond, banking on his potential? If the Bobcats miss out on Davis, does that decrease their fan support even more? Does the fate of basketball in North Carolina hang in the balance?
Wow, that’s a lot of pressure to put poor Davis under.
2. Washington Wizards (20-46): SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky
Chances: 19.9-percent chance at No. 1, 55.8-percent chance at top three
Kidd-Gilchrist isn’t as much a lock to go number two as Davis is to go number one, but he’s pretty close. He’s incredibly tough, a great defender with excellent offensive potential and a work ethic you won’t find in many players. Plus, most of the lottery teams could seriously use a All-Star potential small forward. I’d expect Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland, New Orleans, Sacramento, Portland… ok, basically everyone… to pick MKG at #2.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45): SG Bradley Beal, Florida
Chances: 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.
This one just makes too much sense. Thomas Robinson is the better player, but the Cavaliers already have Tristian Thompson, so they take Beal and create one of the scariest young backcourts (paring Beal with Rookie of the Year Kyrie Irving) in the NBA. With Irving’s slashing style combined with Beal’s shooting ability, that’s an excellent foundation for the future right there.
4. New Orleans Hornets (21-45): PF Thomas Robinson, Kansas
Chances: 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.
New Orleans needs anything they can get their hands on. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go for the big-name high-potential serious-risk that is Andre Drummond, but they really should take Robinson if this pans out.
Robinson proved his skills and his work ethic in college. Drummond did not. Robinson is a beast who worked hard with teammates and carried his squad to the championship. Drummond floundered with a seriously disappointing UConn squad and was spat out of the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Why would ANYONE take Drummond over Robinson here? Mind boggling if it happens.
5. Sacramento Kings (22-44): SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina
Chances: 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.
I’m not a huge Barnes fan, but as a big Kings fan I see the logic. Barnes, if he can accept being a secondary/third weapon, would give the Kings a big corner shooting long baller and help shore up their weakest position. If he can learn to play defense and be a 15 point/six rebound man with solid defense who hits the corner three, this pick makes sense. Can he be Loul Deng?
6. Portland Trailblazers (From New Jersey Nets) (22-44): C Andre Drummond, UConn (If Pick is Top 3, Selection is Owned by New Jersey/Brooklyn)
Chances: 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.
This is a perfect fit for Drummond. He wouldn’t need to be the top scorer (not with LaMarcus Aldridge paired inside) and Portland needs a rebounder/inside defender. Drummond can easily handle that role, but he’ll never improve offensively unless he gets an actual work-ethic somewhere. He was easily the most disappointing of any college player last year, and count me in the group that thinks he’ll detonate in the league – not in a good way.
7. Golden State Warriors (23-43): SF Perry Jones, Baylor (If Pick is 8 or lower, Selection is owned by Utah)
Chances: 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.
With Drummond out of the way (he’d be an absolute PERFECT fit in Golden State), the Warriors could go for the defensive help (John Henson) or for the wing help. I think they go wing, and that means Perry Jones.
Thankfully Jones will likely play wing in the NBA. He’ll impress in individual workouts with his athleticism and solid shooting, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go as high as #5 to Sacramento on Draft Day. But his weaknesses will shine if he does group workouts. A below average defender who is a bit wary of contact, Jones will need to get some toughness or he’ll be eaten alive.
8. Toronto Raptors (23-43): PG Damian Lillard, Weber State
Chances: 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.
Toronto only has one more guaranteed year of Jose Calderon, so they could use a point guard here. They also need to generate excitement, and that’s what makes Lillard a slam dunk pick.
The Weber State guard is one of the most well-rounded and explosive scorers in this draft, with only minor concerns about his ability to play as a floor general. In a point guard driven league, I can’t see Toronto passing on the electric Lillard here.
9. Detroit Pistons (25-41): PF John Henson, North Carolina
Chances: 1.7-percent chance at No. 1, 6.1-percent chance at top three.
Lock this pick in. It just makes too much sense. Henson’s lack of offense would be mitigated a bit by playing with Greg Monroe, while Monroe’s defensive lack (he’s not bad by any means, but not a gifted defender for sure) is helped by the crazy athletic Henson. Think of Henson as a higher potential Epke Udoh.
10. New Orleans Hornets (From Minnesota Timberwolves) (26-40): PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina
Chances: 1.1-percent chance at No. 1, 4-percent chance at top three.
Marshall’s basketball IQ and passing skills are bar none in this draft, and New Orleans would be smart to pair him with Robinson or any of the young pieces they could get at #4. Imagine Marshall and Robinson with years to work together… if those two developed a great chemistry, we could be looking at a Stockton/Malone version 2.0.
11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38): SG Jeremy Lamb, UConn
Chances: 0.8-percent chance at No. 1, 2.9-percent chance at top three.
After getting Drummond with their #6 pick, Portland uses their second pick to add a scoring punch. The Jamal Crawford experiment didn’t work, but Lamb could certainly in his place. With an incredible range and good penetrating skills, Lamb could develop into Portland’s top option in two/three years.
12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): PF/C Jared Sullinger, Ohio State
Chances: 0.7-percent chance at No. 1, 2.5-percent chance at top three.
Milwaukee lacks an inside scoring punch since they shipped out Andrew Bogut. Sullinger is the most talented inside scorer, but he lacks the potential that any of the above bigs might have. He’s below-average athletically and an average defender at best – with a ceiling of a mini-Zach Randolph, but with the floor of Glenn Davis.
13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): PF Terrence Jones, Kentucky
Chances: 0.6-percent chance at No. 1, 2.2-percent chance at top three.
I see Jones rising fast as workouts commence, so much so that a top ten pick isn’t out of the question. His talents are unquestioned, and he’s quick/strong enough to play either wing position. His only concerns are work ethic (nothing close to Drummond’s problems). He could be a steal here if he works out.
14. Houston Rockets (34-32): PF Arnett Moultrie, Mississippi State
Chances: 0.5-percent chance at No. 1, 1.8-percent chance at top three.
Moultrie was considered a late first rounder but scouts now say he could easily go lottery. Houston needs some athletic force inside and Moultrie could provide that easily. He’s a bit older than some of the players, but he’s also got four years of college under his belt and is a very smart player. Well rounded with no serious weakness, think of him as the second coming of Jason Thompson.
About the Author
Bryant West, Columnist Graduate from Saint Mary's College of California, former Editor-in-Chief of the Saint Mary's Collegian Newspaper and beat writer for the Saint Mary's men's basketball team. Self-diagnosed spelling failure. Long time basketball follower, huge Sacramento Kings fanatic. Fan of the San Francisco Giants, the San Francisco 49ers and the Saint Mary's Gaels. This world is made - of LOVE and PEACE! Check out my NBA Draft Big Board, where I break down the top of the 2012 draft class! - And follow me on twitter at @BSWest5.
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