Nowadays, NBA GMs will always draft a player based on what they believe the player can become, rather than what the player has already actually done. And while many/most players take a few years to get used to the NBA life, some will always break out their rookie years because, quite simply, they are more NBA ready than others.

The class of 2012 is hailed because of it’s potential (check out this piece I wrote covering just that) but many of the top players taken will need a good long time before we can really tell just how good they are. Expect high lottery picks like Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal, Andre Drummond and Perry Jones to take at least a year or two before we can begin judging them. But there are a good number of players who are ready to come in and contribute immediately, and a good handful of those who are expect to go late first/early second.

Of course, there will always be players who are hailed as NBA ready who prove they’re anything but (hint hint, Jimmer Fredette) and players who we don’t expect to take off for a while who explode out of the gate (hint hint, Kyrie Irving). But for right now, let’s take a look at the top 10 players who I peg as most NBA ready.

10. SF Andrew Nicholson, St. Bonaventure

The biggest questions about Nicholson was his mental approach to the game. After a dominant NCAA run, those questions were pretty much answered. His well-rounded skills and nice efficiency will make him a productive player right off the bat, but he lacks the potential that many big men (Robinson, Arnett Moultrie, John Henson) might have.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s piece…

9. PF Thomas Robinson, Kansas

I love Robinson’s game, his passion and his dedication. In five years, I believe he’ll be amongst the NBA’s top power forwards. And while some say his transition into the league will be hard, I think the fears about his height are being supremely overblown.

That said, I don’t expect him to come out and dominate immediately. Not because of his size, (I expect he’ll learn quickly that he can no longer dominate over big players by just jumping over them) but rather his somewhat raw offensive game. It’ll take some time, but not as much as many of Robinson’s critics say.

I expect a second-half of the season surge by Robinson that will remind everyone why he’s a top three prospect in a great draft.

8. PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina

Defensively, he’s not ready. Scoring wise, he’s not even close. But in terms of running a team, he’s more than ready.

Give him a good coach and at least one or two good/above average teammates, and Marshall will shine as the floor general.

Side note – Kendall Marshall has become, at the same time, the most overrated AND underrated player in this draft. When Marshall is somehow being listed in mock drafts as a top eight prospect AND then being told by Fran Fraschilla that Dion Waiters is a better prospect for PG hungry teams… mind boggling. Marshall is a pick anywhere between 10 and 14. If he goes earlier, OR gets dropped for Waiters, something has gone wrong.

7. PF Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

This is the only time you’ll see Sullinger ranked over Thomas Robinson. When it’s all said and done, I expect that Robinson will retire a very successful PF and Sullinger will be a middle-of-the-pack one, but out of the gates, Sullinger has the edge. His size and post skills are both very solid, and while he lacks the long term potential of most of the draft picks, he should fare alright in his rookie season.

6. PG Damian Lillard, Weber St.

If Weber just had 50 percent of Marshall’s point guard skills, he’d be a top five pick easily. As he is, think of him as a more efficient version of a young Monta Ellis with a higher ceiling as a point guard.

Ellis took a year to work himself into NBA stardom, but Lillard won’t take that long. If he continues to work on his floor vision and meshes well with a good coach, he’s got the other talented locked up. His scoring is unquestioned, as is his above average defense and natural instincts. I think Lillard will be like the 2009 run that Brandon Jennings put out, producing some dominant early performances but mellowing out as the year goes on.

5. SF Jeff Taylor, Vanderbilt

Taylor, a senior from Vanderbilt, is a very smart player with a well-rounded offensive game who will immediately give someone a highly capable 6^th man type player. In a draft of potential scoring studs, he won’t rank up there with Kidd-Gilchrist or Bradley Beal in a few years, but his basketball IQ and strong skill set will make him an immediate impact player. Just don’t expect him to ever be more than a 6^th man, a Francisco Garcia/Leandro Barbosa type player at best.

4. C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina

The lone senior in this class who will certainly be picked in the top 20, what Zeller lacks in brute size and physical gifts, he makes up for in IQ.

His offensive game is very smooth, and he’s comfortable both with his back to the basket and facing up to it. He’s an above-average rebounder and a good defender, making up for below average leaping skills with quick hands, good technique and an excellent cerebral game.

While many of this draft bigs (particularly John Henson, Perry Jones and Arnett Moultrie) may go higher than Zeller in this draft, Zeller will have a far better rookie year. He’s as NBA ready as most big men get.

3. SF Draymond Green, Michigan State

Attention, NBA GMs – keep Green out of the hands of the contenders. Someone snag him with a early 20s first or make sure he falls into the second round. Please?

Green will be the steal of the draft, ala Isaiah Thomas from last year, mark my words.

Much like Thomas, Green’s biggest concerns are not his skills, which he has plenty of, but something far less tangible—where would he fit position wise? Wherever he damn well pleases, that’s where—you do not pass up on a talented all-around prospect because you don’t know if he can play the 3-4 or not!

Green doesn’t really lack any one skill, and he’s a very energetic player. Whoever drafts him will get a smart player ready to contribute from day one.

2. SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky

I can hear the objections through the computer screen. But Bryant!, they say, Kidd Gilchrist can’t shoot! To which I sadly agree. But then again, he can do pretty much everything else, and he’s the second best defender in this draft only behind Davis.

Yes, his jumpshot will take work, but the rest of his game is already above average. His intensity will make him a instant fan favorite wherever he lands, and even if he finishes the season shooting 25 percent from three point territory, I thoroughly expect him to finish second or third in the ROY voting.

1. PF Anthony Davis, Kentucky

Was there ever any doubt?

Yes, Davis’ offense needs work. Other than that though, he’s golden. He’ll instantly be amongst the NBA elite in terms of defense and shot blocking, and above average as a rebounder. Even on a team like Charlotte, which severely lacks talent, he’ll provide a turnaround of at least 10-15 games from losses into wins just as he is now.

And with his incredible motor, expect him to improve offensively as the season goes on. I’d lock in my bets on Davis for Rookie of the Year for next season, no question.

Name: Dion Waiters
Hometown: Philadelphia, PA
Physicals: 6′ 4″, 215 lbs, 20 years old
College: Syracuse
NBA Position: Shooting Guard (Point Guard?)
Current Stats: 12.6 PPG, 2.3 RPB, 2.5 APG, 1.3 TPG, 1.8 SPG, 47.6% FG, 72.9% FT, 36.3% 3P

Syracuse super 6^th man Dion Waiters will join teammate Fab Melo in the NBA Draft, and while he has been for months considered to be in the late-teens/early 20’s tier, he’s currently rocketing up the boards.

Waiters didn’t start a single game for the Orange last year, but was still their second best scorer, notching 12.6 points a contest in just over 24 minutes a game. He possesses an uncanny driving ability, and has strength and athleticism to score against smaller guards and bigger wings alike.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…

Here is a gem from Joe Treutlein of Draft Express on just how impressive Waiters is pushing the ball –

On the offensive end, Waiters has made a real impact this season by being more opportunistic pushing the ball and getting out on the break, as he sees over 28% of his possessions in transition according to Synergy, which is especially impressive given Syracuse’s just 178th ranked tempo according to Kenpom.com.

He’s a well-rounded player—he’s a capable passer, has decent handles for a slasher, and he’s a good defender with his athleticism and speed.

Honestly, when you watch Waiters, he comes off a bit as a smaller, poor-man’s version of Tyreke Evans. This isn’t a new comparison by any means—see this blurb by Chad Ford of ESPN –

He’s another player who can really split scouts. A few teams have him on their boards as a lottery pick, thanks to his strength and ability to score. They see in him some Tyreke Evans. Others are concerned that his shortcomings could pose problems at the next level.

Sounds a bit inconsistent, right? Well, in mid-April, Ford wrote a piece and said that scouts had Waiters far higher on their boards than Ford or most other “experts” had. Some even said Waiters was a lottery level talent.

ESPN expert Fran Fraschilla wrote a piece last week titled “A case for Waiters over Marshall”, in which he argued that Waiters is not only a point guard prospect in the NBA, but has advantages over North Carolina’s Kendall Marshall.

This only raises the Tyreke Evans comparisons. Evans played point guard for Sacramento for nearly two and a half seasons in Sacramento before the breakout of Isaiah Thomas moved him to wing, and he still continued to handle the ball more than an average wing would.

If Waiters is expected to play point, he’ll be the same type Evans is—when your point guard is a below average shooter and a great slasher, he’ll be getting most of his passes in a half court set by driving, drawing the double team and passing to the open man. Waiters did flourish in the Oranges pick-and-roll sets, however – as Franchilla points out, he was involved in 40 percent of Syracuse’s hard picks.

Would point totally work for Waiters? Count me amongst the skeptics, even though I am a Sacramento Kings fan and believe Evans’ point guard skills are underrated. The difference is Waiters was the sixth man for Syracuse, and while he did handle in college, he never controlled the ball as much as Evans had in college. Evans handled the ball exclusively for Memphis in the second half of his one season in Memphis. Waiters doesn’t have that experience at all, so if he’s going to make the transition, it’ll be a new start completely.

Waiters name is jumping up the boards, and with his recent leap expect him to go behind Bradley Beal and perhaps around the same time as Jeremy Lamb. But if he goes to a team who needs a point, and his selection leaves Kendall Marshall waiting, that team just made a mistake.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 23rd Overall
NBADraft.net: 20th Overall
ESPN.com: 15th Overall

Draft Watch:  Phoenix seems a good fit, as they need youth on the wings badly and with Steve Nash leaving need someone the fans can be excited about. Just don’t expect Waiters to transition to point guard and make fans forget about Nash.

Number 13 seems a reasonable ceiling for Waiters, so his floor seems reasonable at number 20 or so. Orlando (#19) seems a good fit, and they need some wing help badly, although not as bad as they’ll need bigs once Dwight Howard is shipped out.

Houston has two picks (#14 and #16) in Waiters range, and while they will almost certainly use one to bulk up in the paint, they could use a pure shooting guard. Kevin Martin’s time in Houston may be winding down, and Waiters would give them a high potential piece of the future alongside some very good shooters.

Conclusion: Originally ranked as the fourth best shooting guard behind Beal, Lamb and Terrence Ross, Waiters now has a shot at going above both Ross AND Lamb. With his superior athleticism and driving skills, don’t be surprised if Waiters is the first “surprise” pick of the draft.

The 2012 Draft class is finally taking shape, and it is talented, for certain. But it is also very, very dangerous.

Tons of players, all the way from the top picks down to the end of the first round, have huge question marks, way more than usual. This isn’t a safe draft, by any means—this is a draft that can easily get GMs fired.

This class has a lot of unquestionable (and questionable) talent to sort through, and NBA teams won’t have a ton of time to focus on the draft. After all, in the NBA Finals go all the way to Game 7, and then there will only be three days in between the end of the Playoffs and the Draft. Not exactly a ton of time to get it right in a very, very complicated draft.

Luckily for the teams in the lottery, they aren’t playing in the Playoffs, so they can focus more on the Draft. While it’s fair to expect some of the deeper 2012 Playoff squads to struggle in scouting their players in limited time, lottery teams not only have the time, they NEED to get this right.

So let’s do those lottery GMs a favor and give them some names they should cross off their lists to begin with. Let’s take a look at bad fits for each of the lottery teams.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s piece…

1. Charlotte Bobcats: None

Hate to start off this way, but let’s be real here. Charlotte has no one, with the exception of Kemba Walker and Bismack Biyombo, worth keeping around after this year. No one. There is literally no player they could add in this draft that wouldn’t improve them in some way or another.

I suppose Michael Jordan could go and draft Jared Sullinger or something with the Bobcats’ top four pick and that would be a bad move, but it wouldn’t be a bad fit, just a dumb reach. That’s how bad Charlotte is. Any talent in this draft isn’t redundant with them.

2. Washington Wizards: C Andre Drummond, UConn

I can see Washington being wooed by Drummond’s grand potential and taking the UConn big man, but when you think about it, Drummond would be a horrible fit.

First off, didn’t the Wizards just subject John Wall to nearly two years of a braindead center? They finally ditched JaVale McGee and got Nene out of it, a nice swap. So adding in Drummond, who has the body to dominate but the will of a preschooler, would just be even worse for Wall/Wizards relations. Unless Washington just wants to secure Wall leaves in 2014, they need to steer clear of Drummond.

And second, Washington already has to deal with the memory of drafting Kwame Brown with the 2001 top pick. They don’t need to be using another pick on Kwame Brown 2.0, they need surefire talent (Thomas Robinson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal).

3. Cleveland Cavaliers: PF Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

Sure, if the Cavs were picking tenth or so, this wouldn’t be a bad pick. But at #3, taking Sullinger would imply that A. The Cavs are not convinced that Tristian Thompson is any sort of long term fit in the paint, and B. that they caved to the few, ardent Ohio State fans who still think Sullinger is a future NBA star.

Of course, the Cavs won’t pick Sullinger. Come on, who do you think Danny Ferry is… David Kahn?

4. New Orleans Hornets: SG Bradley Beal. Florida

Picking Beal, who is regarded as an Eric Gordon clone, would basically signal to the NBA world that the Hornets have no intentions of trying to resign Gordon.  And unless Gordon is asking for max level money, that would be a mistake, even after he was out for last season with injury.

New Orleans needs to use both of their picks (this one and the one from Minnesota) to add talent that would fit WITH Gordon, not without him.

5. Sacramento Kings: PF Jared Sullinger, Ohio State

With all due respect to David Thrope of ESPN, I cannot disagree stronger than with his piece here on the Kings draft needs. He lists Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as a bad fit for the Kings (under no circumstances would Kidd-Gilchrist be a bad pick for anyone in this draft) and then lists Jared Sullinger as the best fit.

Let’s take a look at a small scouting breakdown of Jared Sullinger.

• Great size, NBA body
• Huge wingspan
• Very skilled for a big man
• Soft hands, great footwork
• Lacks great conditioning
• Not an explosive leaper
• Can be an indifferent defender

… Oh wait, I’m sorry. That’s ESPN’s 2010 draft breakdown of DeMarcus Cousins. See what I’m getting at here?

The Kings already have DeMarcus Cousins. They don’t need the much weaker, less skilled, lower potential Sullinger next to Cousins, they need an athletic defender. Sullinger would not only be redundant for the Kings, he’d be a downright horrible pick.

6. Portland Trailblazers (Nets own the pick if it is Top 3): SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Who knows who Portland’s GM will be at this time, but if they take Barnes, they’re basically flipping off Nicolas Batum and telling him to take his talents elsewhere. Batum was already pissed last year at the failed extension talks, and his agent even went so far as to say “When Batum becomes a restricted free agent, we’ll look at the other 29 teams before we talk to the Blazers…”.

Taking Barnes means playing a huge game of chicken with an already distant Batum. And Batum is currently and will for years be better than Barnes is/will be.

7. Golden State Warriors: PF Perry Jones III, Baylor

Chad Ford has Golden State taking Jones here in his most recent mock draft. Considering that the Warriors did everything they could just to keep this pick (shamelessly tanking to an extreme that would make David Robinson’s Spurs from 1998 proud), Jones would be a dreadful fit.

Golden State needs toughness inside, especially if Andrew Bogut never regains consistent health. Enter in Jones, who proved last year at Baylor that he is neither tough nor consistant. He’ll make whoever drafts him tear their hair out in frustration, and Golden State already has enough of that.

8. Toronto Raptors: None

Honestly, there isn’t a lottery level talented that would be bad for Toronto. Davis is perfect for any team. Kidd-Gilchrist or Barnes would provide much needed wing help. Beal would provide shooting the Raptors don’t have. Thomas Robinson wouldn’t fill a positional need, but he’d give them toughness they don’t have. Drummond would help with their rebounding/defensive errors. Sullinger and Jones would give bench depth. Damian Lillard or Kendall Marshall would give them a permanent fit at PG.

Toronto could take anyone and could realistically expect them to fit. They are in a pretty good place.

9. Detroit Pistons: PG Damian Lillard, Weber State

The Pistons need wing help, not guard help. Lillard is basically a better shooting version of Brandon Knight, and two point guards with a questionmark on their willingness to run the offense would be redundant. Detroit would be far better taking a guy like John Henson, who would instantly help their defensive needs.

10. New Orleans Hornets: Any pick that would be redundant to #4

The Hornets need to balance out their draft. If they take Michael Kidd-Gilchrist with their first pick, they can’t use it on another wing (say Terrence Jones). If they use their first pick on Thomas Robinson, they shouldn’t use this one on Jared Sullinger or Perry Jones.

Or they can save themselves the headache and just take Kendall Marshall or Damian Lillard here.

11. Portland Trailblazers: PF John Henson, North Carolina

I’m a big fan of Henson’s game, but I’m not sure he fits with Portland here. Despite the fact that I think Henson will be better than former teammate Tyler Zeller or Illionis big Meyers Leonard, I also think both would fit with Portland better. LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t a NBA center, and while Henson would help defensively, he’s way too skinny to play center (currently at 220 lbs). The Blazers need big size.

12. Milwaukee Bucks: SG Jeremy Lamb, UConn

This also goes for Austin Rivers. Milwaukee already has Brandon Jenning and Monta Ellis filling the “undersized guards with inefficient shooting” category, and Rivers/Lamb wouldn’t give them anything they don’t already have. They should take Terrence Jones or Tyler Zeller here to bolster size and not worry about scoring talent.

13. Phoenix Suns: SG Austin Rivers, Duke

Chad Ford picked Rivers for Phoenix in his most recent mock, saying “The Suns need a little bit of everything, but what they really need is star power. With Steve Nash possibly on the move this summer, someone has to sell tickets.”

That’s as silly a reason to take a super risky pick as ever there was one. Yes, Phoenix needs star power, but they aren’t going to find one at #13 without serious problems. Rivers shouldn’t go in the top 15 with the attitude/motivational issues that he carries.

14. Houston Rockets: PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina

Houston has no business taking a point guard in this draft, not when they have Kyle Lowry and Goran Dragic in free agency. It’s doubtful that Marshall or Lillard would be on the board at this point, and that leaves Houston with a ton of good options (Terrence Jones, Meyers Leonard, or even Austin Rivers).

Name: Quincy Miller
Hometown: North Chicago, IL
Physicals: 6′ 9″, 210 lbs, 19 years old
College: Baylor
NBA Position: Small Forward
Current Stats: 10.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.4 APG, .7 SPG, .6 BPG, 1.8 TPG, 44.7% FG, 81.6% FT, 34.8% 3P

Quincy Miller pulled a switch last week when we decided that he would, in fact,  join the 2012 NBA Draft. While we’ll never know exactly what went through his head when he made his final decision, I believe it was a mistake to keep his name in the draft.

The class of 2012 is already stock full of midrange-late teens type talent, and unless Miller wows in the workouts, he’s not going to soar much higher. In fact, he’s actually been falling as the year went on. At the beginning of the NCAA season, he was expected to go in the lottery. Now, he’s probably around 18-20. Some mocks even have him going in the very late first round.

Rather, he could have returned to Baylor , and, out of the shadow of Perry Jones, he could have proven once and for all if he was a true #1 option in college. He’d probably have found more favorable draft odds next year. Of course, he could have gone back, floundered as the top option and found himself no better off next year.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…

As a player, Miller has most of the tools you look for in a small forward. He’s athletic and has excellent size and length for his position. He’s a smart, cerebral type player who both has the body to excel and the mind to use it. He’s very fluid, and the only downside to him physically right now is he’s still way too wiry – he needs to bulk up in strength.

His versatility as a scorer is his most promising NBA feature. He’s got a strong penetrating game, surprisingly solid post moves for a small forward, and solidly consistent range from the outside. And, of course, he’s so athletic that he can rise up above most college players. That might change a bit in the NBA, but he’ll still be above average in terms of hops, so as long as he continues to develop his range and driving abilities there isn’t any reason to think he can’t be a starter level scorer.

It’s tough to get an entire read on Miller defensively. Check out this clip from Walker Beeken of Draft Express –

Defensively, it’s tough to get a great gauge on Miller as a man-to-man defender, since Baylor uses a zone as their primary defense. It appears that he’ll have quite a bit of work to do, however, as his defensive fundamentals seem to be lacking, as he struggles to get in a low stance on the perimeter and has below average lateral quickness for his position.

Additionally, his focus and energy level are inconsistent, as he doesn’t seem to bring the same intensity level from possession to possession, which was clearly an issue for him already in high school. He’ll need to improve his toughness, particularly in terms of fighting his way through screens, something that getting stronger will likely help with.

Another concern for Miller is his injury history. He tore his ACL in his senior year of high school, and while he recovered in a year and showed no sign of loss of athleticism last year at Baylor, it’s certainly a concern, especially after the ACL injuries in the 2012 Playoffs.

One interesting note is ESPN’s Chad Ford’s assessment of Miller’s top skills. He lists basketball IQ and size as two of his top traits (both which make sense), but he also puts rebounding as his third top trait. This isn’t really supported by any evidence. In his positives about Miller, he also says he is an “excellent rebounder/shot-blocker”.  Sorry Chad, did you write this before the season and forget to update it?

Perhaps if he was comparing Miller’s rebounding/blocking to his teammate Perry Jones (who is now famously afraid of contact and despite his 6’11’’ frame is a poor rebounder) it would make sense. But miller certainly wasn’t an “excellent” rebounder or shotblocker this season. He averaged just 4.9 rebounds and .7 blocks, which don’t even rank in the top 30 for his POSITION. To his credit, Baylor as a team averaged 36.4 rebounds a contest, 29^th in the league, so even if he and Jones weren’t massively impressive rebounders for their size, at least the team got it done.

This isn’t to say that Miller was a failure in his freshman year or anything. Just don’t expect him to come into the NBA and demolish right off the bat.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 18th Overall
NBADraft.net: 30th Overall
ESPN.com: 19th Overall

Draft Watch: NBADraft.net continues with their head scratching mocks, as there is no way Miller falls to 30. But as he is, he’s in that jumble of not-quite-lottery talent who will go from 15-20 and are so very hard to predict.

Dallas needs young wings badly, having relied on Shawn Marrion and Vince Carter all season. Those are two excellent players for Miller to learn from, both of whom were once very much like the young Baylor product. If Marrion could get Miller excited about defense and Vince could help offensively, I think this would be an excellent situation for Miller to land himself in.

Orlando has scorer wings, but aside from the remaining fragments once known as Jason Richardson, they don’t have anyone athletic. Enter Miller, who gives the Magic (sans Dwight Howard, when they inevitably swap him before next season) with another decent piece in a team lacking star power.

At the very lowest, Boston (who have picks at 21 and 22) could take Miller to bolster their big wing depth. With defensive veterans surrounding him and Paul Pierce to mentor him, Miller makes a lot of sense for Boston if he falls so far… as long as Boston still finds a way to get Austin Rivers. It needs to happen.

Conclusion: A prototype small forward whose only weakness is a lack of defensive intensity, Miller is another midrange first round talent who, if he lands in the right situation and works at his defense, has lottery type talent.

The biggest news is the celebration in Golden State, where the Warriors won their coin flip with the Raptors and have a 72.6% chance of being 7 or higher – if they end up with pick #8, they ship it to Utah and all of their tanking in the past month (when they lost 17 of their last 20 games) is for not.

As for the lotto itself – let’s take a quick look at our updated teams. Included with each team is the chances the teams have at the top pick, as well as a top three selection.

1. Charlotte Bobcats (7-59): PF/C Anthony Davis, Kentucky

Chances:  25-percent chance at No. 1, 64.3 percent at top three

There is no question to the top pick in this draft. Davis would be number one in nearly any draft… he’d have been #1 in 2011 (Kyrie Irving went #1), in 2010 (John Wall went #1), 2009 (Blake Griffin went #1) and maybe even 2008 (Derrick Rose went #1).

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s mock draft…

2. Washington Wizards (20-46): SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kentucky

Chances: 19.9-percent chance at No. 1, 55.8-percent chance at top three

Mocks have Andre Drummond going as high as number 2. Hopefully Washington learned their lesion last time and won’t take Kwame Brown version 2. Instead, they take the hard working, versatile wing man and finally give John Wall a legitimately awesome teammate.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (21-45): SG Bradley Beal, Florida

Chances: 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.

Beal isn’t a sure a product as Thomas Robinson, but the Cavs don’t need another PF when they used the 4^th overall pick last season on Tristian Thompson. Beal would work wonders with Kyrie Irving and make the Cavs a very dangerous offensive team in the future.

4. New Orleans Hornets (21-45): PF Thomas Robinson, Kansas

Chances: 13.8-percent chance at No. 1, 42.4-percent chance at top three.

The Hornets happily take the third most talented player in the draft. Robinson came oh-so-close to carrying Kansas to a national championship, and he’d give New Orleans an excellent piece to not only build the team around, but a piece to build the entire franchise around.

5. Sacramento Kings (22-44): SF Harrison Barnes, North Carolina

Chances: 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.

Barnes is a very solid shooter, but not much else. He has the potential to develop, but at this point he is a one-trick pony. Sacramento would love to get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist instead, but don’t expect the Kings to take Andre Drummond if they could fit their wing need instead.

6. Portland Trailblazers (From New Jersey Nets) (22-44): C Andre Drummond, UConn (If Pick is Top 3, Selection is Owned by New Jersey/Brooklyn)

Chances: 7.6-percent chance at No. 1, 25.3-percent chance at top three.

I may not like Drummond because of his work ethic, but he’s still in most scouts books a top three pick. Portland needs some size and doesn’t have a permanent fit in at center, so they take Drummond here as the defender/rebounder next to LaMarcus Aldridge.

7. Golden State Warriors (23-43): PF/C Jared Sullinger, Ohio State (If Pick is 8 or lower, Selection is owned by Utah)

Chances: 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.

Golden State needs size and skill in the paint. They’d prefer that their pick be a good shotblocker, but they go with the best rebounder instead. Sullinger is a very good lost post scorer and rebounder, but he doesn’t have the potential that many big men in this draft have.

8. Toronto Raptors (23-43): PF Perry Jones, Baylor

Chances: 3.6-percent chance at No. 1, 12.5-percent chance at top three.

I expect when Perry Jones shows off his skills in workouts he rockets up the draft boards again as he convinces scouts and experts that his inconsistency doesn’t outweigh his talent. Toronto happily takes him and cross its fingers that he doesn’t choke all that often.

9. Detroit Pistons (25-41): PF John Henson, North Carolina

Chances: 1.7-percent chance at No. 1, 6.1-percent chance at top three.

Henson has the rebounding and shot blocking skills to be perfect in Detroit alongside Greg Monroe. He really REALLY needs to bulk up and improve his scoring game, but he’s still only 21 and remains one of the more underrated players in the draft.

10. New Orleans Hornets (From Minnesota Timberwolves) (26-40): PG Damian Lillard, Weber State

Chances: 1.1-percent chance at No. 1, 4-percent chance at top three.

After taking Robinson at #4, the Hornets take the classes best PG option. Weber is a great scorer and an improving passer, but needs to prove he can be a floor general. Still, talent wise, New Orleans gets two excellent pieces.

11. Portland Trail Blazers (28-38): PG Kendall Marshall, North Carolina

Chances: 0.8-percent chance at No. 1, 2.9-percent chance at top three.

Raymond Felton is hitting FA this summer and Portland won’t much miss him anyways. Marshall is a far better floor general than Felton, or many NBA starting PGs for that matter, but needs to get some offensive skills of his own before he’ll become anything special.

12. Milwaukee Bucks (31-35): C Tyler Zeller, North Carolina

Chances: 0.7-percent chance at No. 1, 2.5-percent chance at top three.

Milwaukee needs size, and Zeller brings it, along with speed and high basketball IQ. His weaknesses (shotblocking, athleticism) are negated alongside current Bucks big Epke Udoh.

13. Phoenix Suns (33-33): SG Jeremy Lamb, UConn

Chances: 0.6-percent chance at No. 1, 2.2-percent chance at top three.

The Suns need talent in any form, and happily take the best player left. Lamb has all the scoring gifts you want in a wing, but needs some leadership. He’s not a great defender, but his shooting talents make him hard to pass up.

14. Houston Rockets (34-32): C Meyers Leonard, Illinois

Chances: 0.5-percent chance at No. 1, 1.8-percent chance at top three.

Houston could take Terrence Jones here, but they have a more pressing need in the paint and Leonard has the potential to be a steal if he works out. His defense and rebounding are both excellent, but his motor is a bit inconsistent.

Name: Arnett Moultrie
Hometown: Memphis, TN
Physicals: 6′ 11″, 225 lbs, 21 years old
College: Mississippi State
NBA Position: Power Forward
Current Stats: 16.4 PPG, 10.4 RPG, .8 BPG, 2.4 TPG, 59.4% FG, 78.0% FT, 44.4% 3P

Moultrie officially declared last week, to the surprise of no one. After an excellent season (and a disappointing end) at Mississippi State, the 6’11 junior is wise to cash in on his athleticism now. What is a surprise is how quickly he’s leaping up the draft boards.

While most early mocks have Moultrie going in the late teens/early twenties, according to Chad Ford, scouts and NBA executives think he might go a bit higher.

A sizable group of scouts and execs think we have two players ranked too low on our Big Board: Syracuse’ Dion Waiters and Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie.

A handful of teams have both players ranked in the lottery and a few others in the mid-first round. Waiters’ ability to get to the basket at will and Moultrie’s size, athleticism and rebounding abilities seem to be tipping the scales.

It’s true that Moultrie has a ton of things that GMs and scouts normally fall in love with. He’s got great size, excellent athleticism and already possesses a nice touch. He’s best moving off the ball, and it makes sense considering that he transitioned from being a small forward to being a power forward. His back-to-the-basket game needs improving, but when he’s off the ball and moving around, he’s a smart player and found ways to get to the basket.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…

He has good hands, able to catch the ball in the post and finish with some finesse.  He’s also an excellent rebounder, snagging over 10 a contest. Defensively he’s very solid thanks to his strength and athleticism, but he’s a below average shotblocker, disappointing considering how bouncy he is.

His offense isn’t limited to the post. He’s got excellent range for his size, reaching all the way out past the three point line. He shot .6 threes a game, so it’s not a huge weapon, but he made 44 percent of his buckets from downtown. He also shot 78 percent from the free throw line, so if he can learn to draw the fouls inside, he’s a good bet to rack up the points. It’s pretty impressive how much work he put into improving his shot… he was just 54 percent from the line his freshman year, when he was at UTEP.

He nor his team had the best end to their season. After starting 13-3 and being ranked in the top 25, Mississippi State struggled and fell off the map. Moultrie had just seven points and eight rebounds (on 3-10 shooting) in the loss to Georgia that sealed their fate.  He was dominant in their double overtime loss to Massachusetts in the NIT, scoring 34 points and grabbing six rebounds.

He looks a lot like a more bouncy version of Sacramento’s Jason Thompson. He’s a well-rounded player whose only weakness is a lack of shot-blocking, but he lacks the raw star power to ever be more than a solid starter.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 25th Overall
NBADraft.net: 14th Overall
ESPN.com: 16th Overall

Draft Watch: Is Moultrie really a lottery pick? If he is, at this point, it’s late late into the lottery. I expect him to go 15 through 20 on draft night, unless he goes in and wipes the floor with John Henson/Perry Jones/Jared Sullinger in workouts.

One of my favorite  fits for Moultrie is Memphis. The Grizzlies lost Darrell Arthur at the beginning of the season, and with Zack Randolph down as well they turned to Marreese Speights. Speights will likely leave in FA, and the Grizzlies proved they need not only big help, but with two stiffs like Randolph and Marc Gasol, they need athleticism. Memphis will be a bit lower (#21) than seems likely, though.

Philadelphia can afford to go with any position, but they could use an athletic big. They have Elton Brand, Spencer Hawes and Nikola Vucevic, none of whom are all that athletic.

Dallas needs bigs in any form. Moultrie could actually learn from Dirk Nowitzki on how best to utilize playing off the ball, and since Moultrie has decent range on his shot, Dirk could help with that as well.

There are tons of talented bigs in this draft. Anthony Davis stands alone at the top. Thomas Robinson stands alone on that second tier. Then you have Andre Drummond at tier three, followed by Perry Jones/John Henson/Jared Sullinger/Terrence Jones at tier four. Moultrie could join those four guys, but would you pick him over Tyler Zeller (far less explosive, but far smarter) or any of those tier four guys? We’ll have to see how he does in workouts.

Conclusion: Great explosiveness paired with an exceptional off the ball ability makes Moultrie an intriguing prospect. He’s very well rounded, but needs to work on his moves around the basket and try to develop as a shotblocker before he’ll become more than a bouncy big.

Name: Terrence Ross
Hometown: Portland, OR
Physicals: 6′ 6″, 200 lbs, 21 years old
College: Washington
NBA Position: Shooting Guard
Current Stats: 16.4 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 2.0 TPG, 45.7% FG, 77.4% FT, 37.1% 3P

Washington sophomore Terrence Ross had a season pretty much like the rest of his team-lots of ups, and lots of downs.

He came into the year a favorite to break out, but, like much of his Huskies teammates, failed to perform to his expectations.

That isn’t to say that Ross is a bad player-far from it. He’s got everything you look for in a very solid NBA level wing. He’s a great shooter, with deep range and a consistent stroke. He’s solid when he has his feet set, he’s solid in transition pull-ups, and he’s solid when coming off a pick and roll screen. Pretty much, he’s solid from anywhere.

He’s also an above average defender. He’s not a ball hawk, but he’s very solid, getting 1.3 steals a contest. He’s a bit undersized weight wise, and needs to add a bit of strength so he doesn’t get posted up by bigger guards. But he’s quick enough and athletic enough to keep up with most wings in the league.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…

His problems are mainly three fold. First off, he’s not a great ball-handler or passer. He averaged just 1.4 assists a contest to 2.0 turnovers a game, and faster guards will easily pick off him in the NBA. Second, he was a big part of Washington’s poor basketball IQ. He (and, to be fair, the whole team) could never harness their true potential because they could never figure out how to be effective. Third, and most troubling in a guard, is his shot selection. Despite the fact that he can hit from nearly anywhere, he  never learned when he should shoot and when he should pass. Hopefully, a coach can help him start develop a consistent passing game and he can learn to be part of an efficient offense.

While he was up and down for much of the year, he picked it up in the NIT tournament, averaging 25 points, 5.5 rebounds and 47.9 percent shooting in four games. Those performances probably helped him out quite a bit, and if he doesn’t go in the top 20 or so picks in the draft, it’ll be surprising.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 17th Overall
NBADraft.net: 17th Overall
ESPN.com: 19th Overall

Draft Watch: Ross is considered the draft’s third or fourth best shooting guard, fighting with Austin Rivers for that slot. Both are behind Jeremy Lamb and miles behind Bradley Beal, and are expected to go mid-teens to about 20 or so.

A good fit for Ross would be Philadelphia. The 76ers have talent pretty much everywhere and can afford to pick BPA, and Ross fits a nice need. Philadelphia has talented wings (Evan Turner, Thad Young, Andre Iguodala) but only Jodi Meeks is a consistent three point threat. Doug Collins has lost his team a bit towards the end of the season, but Philadelphia is a perfect example of  “team basketball” and would be a good learning situation for Ross.

Houston has two first round draft picks, and while their biggest need is bigs, they could use one of the two on Ross. Kevin Martin’s injury history is well documented at this point, and Ross would provide depth at the guards, especially if Houston loses Goran Dragic. Not that anyone should play Ross at PG, of course.

Finally, Denver would be an interesting fit. They have enough small forwards that it would let Ross continue to play shooting guard, and Denver is a squad that emphasizes unselfish play. Ross would provide another very capable weapon for George Karl to mold.

Conclusion: If Ross learns to become part of a system and develops a stronger basketball IQ, he has the shooting talents and athleticism to be a very good shooting guard. As he is, he’s certainly worth a top 20 pick.

Name: Tyler Zeller
Hometown: Washington, IN
Physicals: 7′0″, 250 lbs, 22 years old
College: North Carolina
NBA Position: Center
Current Stats: 16.3 PPG, 9.6 RPG, .8 APG, 1.5 BPG, 55.3% FG, 80.8% FT

Tyler Zeller is old school. He stayed at North Carolina for four years, but returned each year better than he’d been before. And even in a league hungry for the younger players with more potential, it’s likely we’ll still see the 22 year old big man in the early stages of the first round.

I wrote last week that nearly all of the players in this draft were, in varying degrees, boom-or-bust type players. That is not the case with Tyler Zeller. He’s the lone senior in this class considered a lock for a top-20 pick, and whatever team picks him knows exactly what they are getting.

He’s an incredibly smart player, and there really isn’t any part of his game you can’t like. He’s very comfortable around the basket, both with his back to it and facing it up. He’s got a decent jump shot, although he was never really asked to utilize it at North Carolina, so it’ll be interesting to see how he’s used as an offensive weapon in the pros.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…

He’s got great hands and very sufficient handles, and for his size he’s got excellent speed. He’s a very fluid player, especially on offense. He’s hardly a great leaper, but he made up for it in college thanks to his basketball IQ and his ability to box people out and his strong array of offensive moves. His go to move on the block is his right handed jump hook, but his tool kit has improved every year.

While he wasn’t the most confident low-block player his first couple of years, he definitely picked it up in his senior year as was actively calling for the ball. While he used to shy away from contact, he became a far more determined player on both ends of the court. This is most obvious in his rebounding numbers, which climbed from 7.2 his junior year to 9.6 his senior year with no significant climb in minutes.

Defensively, he makes up for his lack of athleticism with his IQ. He knows how to stay in front of more athletic guys, but he will have to adjust in the NBA. While he’s a decent size at 250 lbs, he really will need to add more strength so that he can defend against NBA quality centers.

Still, aside from a need for more muscle, there isn’t much to dislike in Zeller’s game. The only downside is that he certainly doesn’t have the ceiling that many bigs (Perry Jones, Jared Sullinger, John Henson) have in this draft. But where they are risks, Zeller really isn’t.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 10th Overall
NBADraft.net: 12th Overall
ESPN.com: 10th Overall

Draft Watch: With guys like Jones, Sullinger, Henson and even Terrance Jones from Kentucky all risky picks, Zeller’s draft slot will be a fascinating study into NBA teams’ thinking. How in love with potential will teams be? Will they pass on potential for a sure thing? Or will Zeller fall past all four of those other players, simply because teams hope they could become better than Zeller? It’s a safe bet that at least one of those younger players will end up worse off than Zeller.

Lucky for Zeller and the rest of those fringe lottery bigs, tons of teams from 10 to about 20 need bigs. Milwaukee, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Dallas, Denver and Boston are all squads currently set to pick in between 10 and 20 would could really use Zeller’s skills.

In Milwaukee, he’d pair with the stronger/more agile Epke Udoh for a decent foundation of young bigs. Phoenix needs any kind of talent they can get, but could you imagine the combined bball IQ of Steve Nash and Tyler Zeller? Philadelphia can safely pick best player available and Zeller may be that when Philadelphia picks (currently set at #16). Denver is always on the lookout for multitalented bigs, while both Dallas and Boston just need size badly.

Conclusion: You know what you’re getting in Zeller. You’re getting a smart, cerebral big man with no real weakness in his game other than a lack of muscle, which can be fixable. It’ll be interesting to see where Zeller falls in a draft full of high-risk-high-reward big men.

Name: Jared Sullinger
Hometown: Columbus, OH
Physicals: 6′ 9″, 280 lbs
College: Ohio State
NBA Position: Power Forward
Current Stats: 17.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 1.0 BPG, 1.2 APG, 1.9 TPG, 53.1% FG, 76.8% FT

Jared Sullinger has to be kicking himself for returning to Ohio State last year.

If he had stayed in the 2011 NBA Draft, he’d have lost the chance for a National Championship and would have had to endure months of the NBA Lockout, but he’d have been a lock as a top five pick. Most likely, he’d be playing for the Cleveland Cavaliers right now, as the Cavs had the 4^th overall pick and it would be hard to see them passing on the hometown hero.

But now? He’s no longer a lock for a top 10 pick, let alone top 5.

First, the good stuff. Sullinger is easily the best low post scorer in this draft. Not that that is a huge thing in itself – Thomas Robinson is a bit raw, Perry Jones stays away from the post, and even Anthony Davis needs to work on his interior scoring skills. But Sullinger has, in the last two years, been the best big in the nation in terms of scoring ability around the basket. He’s very comfortable with his back to the basket and facing guys up. He’s even got fairly consistent range, and can even hit from three.

Hit the jump for the rest of Bryant’s scouting report…

He’s also a great rebounder, and knows how to use his size (280 lbs) to block out guys and get the rebound. He’s a smart player, and has excellent hands and handles. When he was at Ohio State, teammates knew they could count on him to catch nearly any pass into the paint. His 30.39 PER ranked 10th among current college players, according to ESPN.

Sounds like a dream big man, right? Not so fast, he’s got plenty of big time question marks.

First, he’s not very athletic. His 280 lbs helps him bang around in the low post, but he’s a very underwhelming leaper. While he came into his final NCAA season with a bunch of weight lost and a good amount of muscle gained, he still struggles with conditioning at the time.

He’s going to struggle when presented with NBA defenders, especially guys who are longer or more athletic than he is… which is pretty much most power forwards. You need look no further than his last game with Ohio State, when they lost in the Final Four. Against Thomas Robinson and Jeff Withey, both of whom are longer and more athletic than Sullinger, the Buckeye big man had 13 points and 11 rebounds but shot just 5-19 from the field.

He was pretty disappointing in the NCAA tournament. He averaged 17 points and 8.8 rebounds, but shot just 40 percent from the field and choked when the Buckeyes needed him most. Most upsetting was the fact that he didn’t seem to improve in anything from his freshman year. Scouts had hoped another year at Ohio State would bring out more of his potential, but at this point, it looks like his ceiling might be lower than most expected.

Sullinger is a tiny bit undersized height wise, but like Thomas Robinson, it’s not going to keep him from playing the four spot in the NBA. It will keep him from being a true center, but he makes up for it in bulk. It’s just interesting that with Robinson, his height is a well discussed concern, but with Sullinger it isn’t. Most likely, it’s because it’s easier to find holes in Sullingers’ game than in Robinson’s.

Chad Ford compared Sullinger to Kevin Love, Paul Milsap or Zack Randolph, all of which would be worth a top 10 pick easily. Then, of course, he also compared him to Glen Davis. And that’s the risk you take when you take Sullinger.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 6th Overall
NBADraft.net: 11th Overall
ESPN.com: 9th Overall

Draft Watch: As tempting as it is to pencil in Sullinger to the Cavaliers, it’s not a safe bet anymore. The Cavs  aren’t exactly dying for more size, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see them take a big. But they currently sit at #5, and that is too high for Sullinger at this point.

Detroit at #9 would make sense. The Pistons have Greg Monroe, and a Sullinger/Monroe combo would give them a distinct physical size advantage and two very, very smart big men. But Sullinger  isn’t an above average defender, and neither is Monroe.

New Orleans could take him with their second selection (currently slotted at #10) if they don’t get a big with their first first rounder. If they took Bradley Beal with their higher pick and then Sullinger with their second, that’d be a fairly impressive hall for the Hornets.

My personal hope for Sullinger is he goes to Milwaukee, where the Bucks really need some inside scoring. He’d be next to an athletic defender in Epke Udoh, which would help mitigate his problems, and he’d give Brandon Jennings a big target in the middle. He wouldn’t have to be the top option with Jennings and Monta Ellis, but he’d be free to roam the paint, and he’d have a very smart coach in Scott Skiles to work with him,

I can’t see Sullinger falling much past 11 or so. At that point, much like Perry Jones, you have to take him based on talent alone. The further he falls, the less and less teams should be concerned about his question marks.

Conclusion: Very solid scoring skills, but serious question marks about his athleticism cloud his NBA potential. When you hear a ceiling of Zack Randolph with a floor of Glen Davis, you have to be wary.

Name: Perry Jones III
Hometown: Duncanville, TX
Physicals: 6′ 11″, 235 lbs, 20 years old
College: Baylor
NBA Position: Power Forward
Current Stats: 13.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.3 APG, 1.7 TPG, 50.0% FG, 69.9% FT, 30.3% 3P

In this NBA Draft class, it seems the players either have a work ethic of the Gods, or are melancholy to the whole game of basketball. Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson all have well documented work ethics, and you see it in each of them when they played. But on the flip side, you have Andre Drummond and Terrence Jones, who contain so much talent yet often can’t even bothered to care.

And then there is Perry Jones, an ultimate head case. As quoted by Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.com, Jones is “deemed by many scouts as the prospect with the highest upside of any player in college basketball.” So why do the mocks have him falling as far as #10? He doesn’t only look uninterested at times, he looks downright terrified. It’s one thing to be Kwame Brown type bored, it’s another to be bored and Karl Malone type terrified when the game is in the clutch.

Realistically, he looks like a young Lamar Odom. He’s got all the necessary skills – a decent game around the basket, a good jumper with very solid range and the ability to drive and finish at the rim. He’s a good rebounder, a capable and willing passer.

He has all the physical gifts you look for in a star – he’s amazingly athletic, has great length and reach and is strong enough to fight off most NBA SF/PFs. He can run the floor like a guard, dunk like a wing and rebound like a center.

But the sad truth is, he’s just not all that tough a player. He shies away from contact, often refusing to use his size against his opponents. Despite his athleticism, he doesn’t get many blocks (just. 7 a game last season). He stays out on the perimeter too much, refusing to go inside where his size and athleticism could have best been used. He flitted at times between looking lost, bored, and nervous. Except for when Baylor was in the NCAA Tournament… then he was downright petrified.

His fear of contact is worst on the defensive end, where most of the time he just stands flat footed. He’s got great reach, which helps, but he is, at this point, a downright poor defender.

Of course, to his credit, Jones didn’t exactly disappear in Baylor’s biggest games. He just didn’t dominate, or even try too. He had 17 points and eight rebounds on 6-14 shooting against Kentucky, which was actually his best game in the NCAA Tournament (he averaged 10 points, seven rebounds and 47.2% shooting in four games).

At Baylor, he played Center, where he really should have been playing PF at the most. Chad Ford quoted one NBA GM recently in a breakdown of Jones’ game – “He really has the game of a two guard or a small forward,” one respected NBA GM told ESPN.com. “Baylor used him as a center for the past two years, so you rarely got to see him comfortable. It’s like, what if UConn had tried to play Rudy Gay at the 5? I think people would’ve had a very different opinion of him on draft night.”

So is the whole problem just that he was out of position? I can buy that, to a point. He wouldn’t have to face as much contact as a wing. Remember, Kevin Durant played shooting guard his first year, and Jones is certainly fast enough. But does that fix his work ethic? Does it make him suddenly WANT to dominant, especially if he’s being guarded by 6’4 guards? I doubt it.

But here is something I still do not understand. Scouts and mock experts everywhere are dropping Jones down the mocks because of his work ethic. Yet they have Andre Drummond, who has the exact same concerns as Jones, as a top four pick. Why is it a deal breaker on Jones, who has as much talent as anyone, when it isn’t a deal breaker on Drummond?

This isn’t a defense of Jones, of course. The NBA’s history is littered with the bodies of high-potential-turned-bust players who didn’t have the mental framework necessary to rule in the NBA. Will Jones be another shoulda-coulda-woulda been in five years? It sure looks like it.

Current Mock Draft Rankings:
Draftexpress.com: 9th Overall
NBADraft.net: 13th Overall
ESPN.com: 7th Overall

Draft Watch: Much like Drummond, you’ll have a hard time finding a team in thedraft who couldn’t realistically take and use Jones well—outside of the top five, of course.

Toronto needs wing help, and with Jones/Andrea Bargnani and the incoming Jonas Valanciunas, they’d have three sharp offensive weapons who could score from anywhere. But with Bargnani and Jones, you’d have two players who refuse to use their height as they should.

Detroit needs talent of any size. Greg Monroe and Perry Jones would give the Pistons two very smart big men and if Detroit added in a shot blocker then that big man core would be downright scary.

New Orleans needs talent, period. Taking a flyer on Jones with their second first round pick (currently notched in at #10) would be a smart move, especially if they got Thomas Robinson at #3. Jones wouldn’t be all that far from home, either.

Milwaukee has Epke Udoh, who would help elevate many of Jones’ defensive problems. Aside from Udoh, they have no size to speak of.

Phoenix seems the ultimate floor for Jones, and they currently have the #13pick. The further and further down he goes, the less and less risk teams would be taking on drafting him. At #13? He’s a steal.

Conclusion: He’s a dream physically and skill set wise, but he lacks the mental focus to win. He shies away from contact, seemingly refuses to play tough defense, and at times look like a deer caught in the headlights of an oncoming semi. As he falls down the draft boards come June 28^th, it’ll be interesting to see who gambles on his potential, but it won’t be a top 5 pick… which is sad, because he has the talent to be a top three selection.